The first order of business is to use the correct name for the military action that is dominating the news. It is not the Ukrainian War. It is not the Invasion of the Ukraine. It is not the Russian attack on the Ukraine. It is the desire of one psychopath for fulfilling his anachronistic fantasy. It is, purely and simply, Putin’s War.
Little Vladdy made a big boo-boo. His successes in Georgia and Belarus and Kazakhstan and the Crimea and in our 2016 election generated a monumental degree of hubris. His ego began to rival that of the Former One, old Pumpkin Face.
Never, never, never negotiate with this blustering midget. The following is an except from a statement put out by the White House on 3 January 2022.
(China, France, Russia, the UK and the US) consider the avoidance of war between Nuclear-Weapon States and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities.
We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons—for as long as they continue to exist—should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.
Exactly 7 weeks later, in his hour-long rambling rant, he threatened a nuclear attack against anyone that interfered with his upcoming invasion of the Ukraine or his mission to reconstitute the USSR. Threatening the use of nuclear weapons is, in fact, threatening the entire population of the Earth. You are willing to waste your time “negotiating” with such a two-faced liar? Are you hoping his “peace-keepers” will be successful in keeping the peace?” Negotiating with him is playing his game. He considers your willingness to treat him as an honest broker, as an equal, as a weakness. And, he’s right.
The likelihood of Vladdy realizing his nightmare is remote. Given the opportunity to break free of the USSR, the support for independence was overwhelming. The plebiscite in the Ukraine garnered ninety percent support for independence. For the Ukraine and most other parts of that union, the prospect of recreating the empire is a ship that has sailed. Little Vladdy is too obsessed with his pipedream to see or accept reality.
What then? Just spell out your terms and keep ratcheting up the pressure until he realizes his miscalculations. A disinformation campaign would be nice. Plant doubt about the loyalty and intentions of a couple of members of his tight group of cronies. A putative coup might be appropriate.
Below is a graphic illustration of either his ignorance or willingness to twist facts to match his delusions. In his rant he claimed that Moscow is the mother to Kyiv. After a quick glance at the graphic below, do you detect a bouquet of fact or the stench of bull feces?
Putin has committed several miscalculations. most obvious and consequential was thinking that Biden is as spineless as his immediate predecessor.
He borrowed the perennial loser’s assessment of Biden, ignoring the fact that Joe’s area of expertise in the Senate was foreign relations. He seems to have thought the loser’s damage to NATO and our relations with other allies was irreparable. He expected no coming together, no coordination in response to his predations.
All of those years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee paid off for Biden . . . to Putin’s utter surprise. Other than his military’s ability to overwhelm a much smaller non-belligerent country, nothing is going as he planned. He’s complaining to his generals about the unexpected stiffness of the resistance of both the Ukrainian military and general population. Either heads will roll or they will need to send a few more beds to the gulag.
Obama’s feeble response to the taking of the Crimea played a role but his successor’s bootlicking was the massage of Putin’s ego that pushed Vlad over the top.
The support of the separatist movement in Eastern Ukraine is usually seen to have been about a quarter of that area’s population. Some of those supporters have been disillusioned. His proclaimed reason for the buildup was to protect the separatists. His strategy of trying to take the entire country makes some of them realize that empire-building, not their interests was all he cared about. He used them. Sure, perhaps most will cheer him on but he hasn’t enlarged his circle of believers. It certainly failed to increase his admirers, aside from the GOP and Faux News.
As mentioned in an earlier post, Russia is a trailer park with nuclear weapons. Forty percent of its economy is from selling polluting natural resources that come up out of the ground.
Per capita share of Russia’s GDP is lower than Panama and Costa Rico. More importantly, Little Vladdy fears Russians making comparisons with other former parts of the USSR that have aligned with the West, joined the EU and NATO. He needs the Ukraine as a poor country buffering Russians from too clear a perception of the impoverishment of their own country.
Vlad does have talent as a bully and con man. However, he has neither talent nor interest in governing. He has transformed Russia into little more than a kleptocracy.
Beyond his fantasies of resurrecting the failed empires of Russia and the USSR, he sorely needed a boost to his image at home. Before his little venture, experts on Russia were saying that he had the support of, perhaps, half of the Russians in his quest to take over the Ukraine. Now, just hours after his onslaught commenced, the reality of war is less attractive to even more of the population. Another miscalculation.
He cannot afford to let them see neighboring democracies enjoy success while his autocracy is too incompetent and uninterested in actual governing.
The financial straightjackets that can be placed on Putin and his cronies should be implemented immediately. He should be advised that they will not be removed until all Russian troops and government representatives have left the Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea. If any of his three yachts are outside of Russia, they should be seized or blown to smithereens.
Admittedly, I haven’t thought out possible or probable reactions but I find the thought of aiming a few stealth drones at the Kremlin, the iconic center and soul of the Russian empire. intriguing. Such a stroke might well drive the midget off the rails.
A longtime journalist specializing in Russia today said that he and other observers, though not impressed with Putin’s performance in charge of Russia, had been considered rational, at least in his own terms. The journalist stated that he and others have, based on his present behavior, been disabused of that assessment.
The attack on the Ukraine sparked demonstrations across Russia. The government announced harsh treatment of protesters. They are to be classified as rioters. Thousands took to the streets of St. Petersburg and other cities. More than 900 were arrested in Moscow the first day. Demonstrations have been held in at least fifty Russian cities. Were an honest election held today, experts generally agree that Vlad would join old Pumpkin Face as one of the world’s biggest losers.
I should note the effect of the Ukraine’s resistance. In the first three days, Russia lost 1,100 of its troops. That is one-quarter of the number the US lost in all those years in Iraq. Russua’s forces have not been tested in decades. It shows. Just one more miscalculation.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia noted that China has made a couple of moves to ease the trade restrictions on Russia. He termed is “unacceptable.” The other countries might lay upon China just enough barriers to impress upon them the errors of that path. Unless and until China joins the world or at least put their policies into neutral, sanctions against it are in order.
China’s President Xi, Putin’s new bestie, is hardly a rock that Vlad can bank on. The UN Security Council vote failed to bring a smirk to the Midget’s face. While Russia’s member vetoed the resolution of condemnation, China’s response was to abstain.
China has two pillars of its economy. One is its markets of Europe and the US. Xi dare not jeopardize them. The other pillar has been building a couple of dozen new cities from scratch. They are known as ghost towns. While each is modern in every sense and has accommodations for at least a million residents, they are empty. The citizenry is priced out of the market. The cost of tearing them down will not support the artificial economic growth that the construction did. Those roosting chickens will do enough economic damage. Even a 5 to 10% reduction is trade would bring economic disaster.
There should be nothing on our and our friends’ agendas even hinting of negotiations. Let the Midget stew in his own juice. Vlad’s image is undergoing a change from powerbroker to pariah.
Looking at Putin’s fantasy of restoring the empire and glory of either Russia or the USSR, I am puzzled. Just what was so attractive? Sure, Russia held a lot of territory but to what purpose? As an empire, Russia was essentially a backwater afterthought for the rest of the world. It was a primitive agrarian relic with a bloated ruling class inappropriately covered in gilt.
The USSR was an absolute, utter failure. With a large, talented population, natural resources and every other seeming advantage, it was in large part a shell covering economic and political rot. With a bunch of former members enjoying their independence from the rotten Russian core, only an insane egoist could entertain such a nonsensical nightmare. It would be a fool’s dream even for a a sizeable team of competent, creative people.
Such a group would not even think of using either the Russian or Soviet model as their guide. The Moscow Midget has not the analytical skills nor the intelligence to comprehend the inherent fallacies nor the sense of humor to appreciate the stupidity of his obsession.
Late news is that The US and Germany are sending 1,000 anti-tank Javelins and 500 Stingers to the Ukraine. Helicopters and any aircraft below 10,000 feet will become primarily sacrifices.
As I close, Russian forces have yet to take any sizeable urban areas. A Russian soldier was heard on his radio asking how was he supposed to know who to shoot, as “They look just like us?”
p.s. apropos of nothing, looking over the maps of the Ukraine, seeing the city of Odessa reminded me of a great aunt that shared that name. I have tried to not let that fact color the comments in this article.
If you found this educational, edifying, interesting or otherwise worth your time, this geezer would appreciate a little supplement to those Social Security checks, They forgot to factor in the cost of publishing a blog. I would like to continue being able to afford my daily cup of coffee and pound of caviar.
Thank you,
