We are constantly bombarded with analyses of the race for the Democratic nomination. It all seems to fall short. Who has the better chance? A moderate? A progressive? Who knows? As everyone else, I have an opinion — shocking, I know.
Whether it’s climate change, healthcare, gun control, wealth tax or any number of progressive positions, polls show support ranging from 60% on up. Then why do the two major progressive candidates total only around 35% in Iowa and New Hampshire? It appears the electorate wants a moderate. Why?
The reason is fear. People are afraid of the word socialism. They are afraid of losing their healthcare insurance.
The unions fought hard for their health insurance coverage. Many others have insurance through their employer that they are happy with. Tie that up and hang the word socialism on it and their fear is understandable.
Bernie and Elizabeth understand that the Private health insurance companies take a major cut the top. it used to range from 30 to 32%. Obamacare tried to reduce that a little but that is a lot to pay for healthcare insurance, which goes to profits, advertising and administration, not healthcare.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services pays for more health products and services than any other entity in the world. It pays for no advertising or profits. In a book I published in 2007, I found their administrative cost to be 1.8%. I have heard that it is presently only 1.6%.
That saving alone would be sufficient to cover many more people with many more services then Medicare presently covers.
So, from a strictly financial perspective, it makes sense to go straight to universal health care. However, instant implementation would cause a great deal of confusion. Also, the insurance companies would go all out in fighting it. It has already been labeled as socialism, which it is not. And then there is the question of whether or not it could get through Congress.
Mayor Pete’s position of Medicare for all who want it makes far more sense, though it too would have a tremendous fight on its hands.
While many of those with health insurance, whether through a union or not, do not want to lose their coverage, that coverage is not guaranteed, as their jobs are not guaranteed. Their job may take a trip on a slow boat to China, or it may be automated out of existence. Trying to obtain a new insurance policy would be problematic, especially if the insurance company asserts a pre-existing condition.
One should realize that companies can, and some have, eliminated health benefits merely with the stroke of pen, even union guaranteed healthcare insurance notwithstanding. It might alter the polling if any of the foregoing happened to those who were polled. Until healthcare is a constitutional right, nothing is guaranteed.
The citizenry of the U.S. is progressive. However, this is obscured by voter suppression, gerrymandering and scare campaigns’ such as using the word socialism when very few people could correctly define it. To be clear, I am not a socialist or a capitalist or a communist or a mercantilist, et alia. I find significant faults with all isms.
Below are the results of NPR/PBS/Marist poll from last year.
For Against Unsure
Background checks for gun purchases at gun shows or other Private Sales. 89% 9% 2%
Medicare for all that want it. 70% 25% 5%
Government regulation of prescription drug prices. 67% 28% 5%
A pathway to citizenship for immigrants who are in the US illegally. 64% 32% 4%
Legalizing marijuana nationally. 63% 32% 5%
A Green New Deal to address climate change. 63% 32% 5%
A wealth tax that is a higher tax rate on income above $1000000. 63% 34% 4%
A ban on the sale of semi-automatic assault gun such as the AK-47. 57% 41% 2%
A national minimum wage of $15 an hour. 56% 41% 4%
Having the United States rejoin the Paris climate agreement. 53% 31% 17%
Free college tuition at public colleges or universities. 53% 43% 5%
A tax on a missions of carbon-based fuels such as coal oil and natural gas. 50% 44% 6%
Repealing Obamacare. 44% 51% 5%
Medicare for all, a national health insurance to replace private health insurance. 41% 54% 5%
Not taking all of this into consideration, it is quite possible that Bernie could be the nominee. It’s even possible that his personality and the the enthusiasm he generates could propel him into the Oval Office. But it should be noted that Bernie’s personality and the enthusiasm he engenders are likely to be to his benefit but not provide coattails for those down-ballot candidates we need. The media naturally focuses on the presidential race but maintaining the House and flipping the Senate are of no less importance. Bernie would be of little if any help against most of the GOP senators.
Kamala Harris had a great first debate but is gone. Her pre-candidacy history as a prosecutor finally forced her out of the race. Amy Klobuchar is of that ilk. Her win in the debate that preceded the New Hampshire primary will probably lose much of its luster. She seems unable to create much enthusiasm beyond women who want a female nominee regardless of other factors. Prior to her candidacy for president, she was a dependable DINO Democrat In Name Only.
Although I agree with Elizabeth Warren on universal healthcare, I do not see it as a winning position this election cycle.
Biden’s history on criminal justice, welfare and other issues almost qualifies him as a DINO. Also, even in his third attempt for the office, he is still a lackluster campaigner.
I like Tom Steyer and his positions on several issues but have trouble swallowing the idea of billionaires in office. I was of that opinion long before the advent of the faux billionaire that is our present vexation. Mike Bloomberg has the same negatives for me while offering few positives. His strongest point is the promise to financially support the nominee with whatever is needed.
I almost forgot Tulsi Gabbard. But if course, there is no reason to remember her.
That leaves Mayor Pete. Looking closely at some of his positions, Medicare for all who want it is the most practical position on the stage. It is also far more progressive than Obamacare, which was merely insurance tinkering, not healthcare reform. While he purposely positions himself as a left-leaning moderate. I don’t know if he can garner significant support from the Black Democrats in time. He should have sufficient funding to stay the course from somewhat progressive people of wealth who are scared of Bernie. Actually, even conservatives of wealth want to ensure that Bernie fails to get the nomination. I think I see considerably more character in the mayor than most politicians. I was disappointed by Obama’s association with the dark side and may be disappointed again but I maintain a spark of hope. For the sake of transparency, I admit to having served as a mayor back in the 1970s.
Perhaps having Elizabeth close as V.P. to nudge him, if necessary, and tapping into the enthusiasm she has shown being capable of generating would be the best ticket. The combination of a Rhodes Scholar and veteran with a Harvard professor with down home roots is the total antithesis of the national embarrassment that presently burdens us. And she has a plan. Or, how about the reverse? Watching Pence is a debate up against Pete would be a delightful, hilarious treat.
If you found this educational, edifying, interesting or otherwise worth your time, this geezer would appreciate a little supplement to those Social Security checks, They forgot to factor in the cost of publishing a blog.
Many thanks,
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