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	<title>The Couth Hillbilly &#187; ucla</title>
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		<title>Experts On Astrology</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:48:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Crawford</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.crawfordharris.com/?p=401</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post was inspired by one by Ryan Grim. Although long, you really should read it in its entirety &#8211; after you&#8217;ve finished mine. Although the inspiration came from another source, you will find that this topic has long been of interest to me. Despite the title, the subject actually concerns another pseudo science, economics. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p><img class="size-full wp-image-402" title="The Federal Reserve, Home Of Astrologers - Or One Of Those Pseudo Sciences" src="http://www.crawfordharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ferderalreserve1.jpg" alt="The Federal Reserve, Home Of Astrologers - Or One Of Those Pseudo Sciences" width="209" height="150" align="left" /><span style="color: #800000;">T</span><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">his post was inspired by one by <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/07/priceless-how-the-federal_n_278805.html">Ryan Grim</a>. Although long, you really should read it in its entirety &#8211; after you&#8217;ve finished mine.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Although the inspiration came from another source, you will find that this topic has long been of interest to me. Despite the title, the subject actually concerns another pseudo science, economics.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">While I realize that economics is accurately termed the dismal science, please hang in here with me. The post will provide a little perspective to a topic that is of importance to you.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;"><span id="more-401"></span>I was fortunate. My professor in Economics 101 at UCLA told us that, if you took everything that the general populace thought they knew about economics and reversed it, you would be right 60% of the time. He was wrong, of course. More likely, you would be correct closer to 80% of the time.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">On my own, I discovered a corollary to that. If you take what economists believe and reverse it, you will be right almost 100% of the time. Economics is not sufficiently developed to be seriously considered an academic discipline.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">At the time I had no interest in going beyond an introductory course in the subject. I had no idea that I would, 15 years later, be forced to work for a graduate degree in International Economics.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Graduate schools are ranked on various criteria. An important one is how many of its graduates go to work in the field of their degree. Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies was the very top in its field. However, the Department of State had, at that time, hired no significant numbers in twenty years.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Whatever your major interest, international economics was required. They figured a degree in that would provide the opportunity for jobs at the World Bank, multinational corporations and such. This would not hurt their ranking.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Unfortunately, my lack of respect for economics carried over from those aforementioned undergraduate days. I posited questions to every economics professor and working economist I encountered. My particular favorite had to do with &#8216;The Law of Supply and Demand.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">In 1973 we experienced the first oil embargo. There were relatively few options available then for customers to change to smaller, more fuel efficient automobiles. </span><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">In 1974 and 1975 c</span><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">ar sales dropped significantly. At the same time, car prices increased faster than at any period during my lifetime. Supply and demand didn&#8217;t seem to be working.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Most of the professors and economists were stumped for an answer. One professor responded that since we had only three manufacturers (not technically correct) there was no free market. He claimed that the basic assumptions of economics were based on a free market. Okay.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">A free market requires lots of suppliers and lots of consumers. There must be enough so that no buyer or seller can control the market. His assertion that a free market did not exist was true. But, knowing that any good and dedicated ideologue has a ready answer for every obvious and expected criticism, I had purposely set up a two-stage argument.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">I had stated that car prices had risen more in 1974-5 than in any other years during my lifetime. I countered that the greatest percentage increase in prices had been slightly before my lifetime, 1930-1. You may recall from history that coincided with the beginnings of the Great Depression. Those were not good years for people trying to sell cars.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">At that time, there were more than 180 automobile manufacturers in this country. Although not a perfect free market, it certainly came close enough for our purposes. That stumped even the professor who had an excuse for part one.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">If even the most basic tenets of economics could be shown to be untrue, how much faith should we put into the more esoteric ones?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Ryan Grim&#8217;s post centers on the control that the Federal Reserve has over economic discourse in this country. He easily makes his point. Alan Greenspan ruled the Fed. Alan Greenspan was a close friend of Ayn Rand and a <em>devotee</em> of her discredited, pretentious, greed-based gospel.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">By giving consulting positions to editors and editorial board members of all the leading publications in the field and a variety of other means, Alan ensured opposing viewpoints would not get published. Remember, this is the same Alan Greenspan who admitted to the Congress last Fall that he was shocked by our present economic meltdown because it brought into question every tenet upon which his entire career was based.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">As Ryan states, &#8220;</span><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">Publishing in top journals is, like in any discipline, the key to getting tenure. Indeed, pursuing tenure ironically requires a kind of fealty to the dominant economic ideology that is the precise opposite of the purpose of tenure, which is to protect academics who present oppositional perspectives.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">It is a closed system. It is a system that made me forego pursuit of a doctorate in international relations. I went to graduate school with the intention of teaching. Any such aspirations would have been curtailed absent tenure. It should not be necessary to remind the regular readers that the kindest thing one might call me is iconoclast. I would never get published.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">In any event, Alan continues to be treated as the demigod of the field. His acolytes hold the top economic policy positions in the present administration and at the Fed. One cannot get a responsible policy position without buying into the simpleminded errors upon which this school of thought is based.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">However wrong this idiotic ideology has proven to be, Obama feels constrained to reappoint Ben Bernanke. There is no need for a Federal Reserve if the goal is to have a rational economy. That is an awfully big if. Because of the monopoly this cabal has over economic thought, Obama likely doesn&#8217;t question the stars of that blighted clique.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">If Obama does have any reservations, he is further checked by the argument that Wall Street would react badly to any real change in economic leadership. That is based on the fallacy that Wall Street is the economy; that it is something more than a collection of casinos.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;">If you feel the need for advice from someone who has no idea what they are talking about, economists and astrologers meet that criterion. I recommend basing your choice on  alphabetical order.<br />
 </span></p>
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		<title>A Drunken Party</title>
		<link>http://www.crawfordharris.com/a-drunken-party/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:55:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Crawford</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mental Illness]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.crawfordharris.com/?p=320</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Who do you trust? John Belushi got it right. Most academics get it wrong. Everyone in academia knows just what a symposium is. At least they think they know. Have you read Plato&#8217;s Dialogues? One was named Symposium. Yes, the Greeks had a word for it: a drunken party. I could have heard much more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p><img src="http://www.crawfordharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/symposium1.jpg" alt="Belushi Got It Right" title="Belushi Got It Right" align="left" width="160" height="150" class="size-full wp-image-323" /></p>
<p><span style="color: #800000;">W</span><font face="arial">ho do you trust? John Belushi got it right. Most academics get it wrong.</p>
<p></font><br />
<font face="arial">
<p>Everyone in academia knows just what a symposium is. At least they think they know. Have you read Plato&#8217;s <em>Dialogues</em>? One was named <em>Symposium</em>. Yes, the Greeks had a word for it: a drunken party. I could have heard much more intelligent talk at an <em>Animal House</em> toga party than I heard at a medical symposium held at Vanderbilt University.</p>
<p><span id="more-320"></span>Back in early 2007, I think it was, I attended an all-day symposium at Vandy on genetics and psychiatry. Thankfully, I could only stay for the morning sessions. A physician from UCLA was scheduled to speak first, so that he could catch a flight back to Los Angeles. (He caused me to be embarrassed to admit that UCLA is one of my many <em>alma maters</em>.)</p>
<p>If the speaker had realized how ridiculous his presentation was, he might have left for the airport without bothering to wait for his introduction. I shouldn&#8217;t have given you any warning. I should have just related the story and let your jaw involuntarily drop.</p>
<p>He began with the required posture of humility. He stated that the subject of genetics in psychiatry, or <em>vice versa</em>, lacked credibility. He then proceeded to provide proof, however unintentionally, that the lack of credibility was merited.</p>
<p>The speaker was telling us about the research he and his compatriots had been carrying on in a remote valley in Nicaragua. This area was selected because it was assumed that the genetic pool would be stable, without the intrusion of genes from outside sources. That seemed a fair assumption and useful element of the proposed study.</p>
<p>He droned on. The slides of pictures and graphs were insufficiently exciting to overcome the developing sugar lows from the breakfast pastries. The images were barely adequate in size for the back row. My Baptist upbringing seems to continue to dominate my seating preferences.</p>
<p>The graphs related to his research of the incidence of schizophrenia in family histories. All of a sudden one particular graph struck me as odd. I almost laughed out loud. Why was everyone not filled with mirth? There was absolutely no reaction from the audience, other than my stifled laughter.</p>
<p>I turned to the young lady, a medical student, seated next to me. Whispering, I asked her if she noticed anything odd about the graph on the screen. She didn&#8217;t. I asked her to count the number of generations represented. She counted. Her answer exactly matched my count.</p>
<p>Seven. There were seven generations supposedly represented on that slide. Seven?</p>
<p>This valley was chosen for its remoteness. How many doctors had visited this valley six or seven generations back? How many psychiatrists? How many generations of DNA samples had been taken?</p>
<p>Most estimates of the frequency of schizophrenia range from one to one and one-half percent of the population. I did not think to make a count of those designated as being with or without a diagnosis of schizophrenia quickly enough. My guesstimate at the time was that it was close to 20 percent. I have never heard of such a concentration from any other source. Depression, I might be willing to accept such a frequency. Schizophrenia, no way.</p>
<p>If I, in my semi-somnolent state, could so quickly catch this absurdity, was no one else in the room awake? Had the speaker and his colleagues had insufficient months to catch this little problem?</p>
<p>This is what passes for scholarly research in the scientific backwaters of UCLA and Vanderbilt. Actually, after reading more medical studies than is healthy over the past 18 years, I can vouch for the fact that 2-3 percent at most can qualify as scholarly, scientific or research. Harvard or Podunk, it makes no difference.</p>
<p>These &#8220;researchers&#8221; are commonly MDs, rather than having been trained in research. They arrogate to themselves such appellations. They flatter themselves that they are doing science. Beyond those conceits, most are merely hired lackeys of the drug lords.</p>
<p>What I have just related is not some rare anomaly. It is far more representative than we would prefer to think. Whatever the letters following their names, whatever the presumed prestige of the institutions with which they are affiliated, most are incompetent wannabes.</p>
<p>Just remember, these are the people into whose hands you put your health, well-being and life. Take no aspirin and call me in the morning.<br />
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